2010年2月8日 星期一

Mauer BBQ Work (10-02-09)



進正文前,大家可以先瀏覽一下這篇,還有提醒愛貓的您,新的投票也展開了。

我們知道貓主席在09年球季是爆發的一年,讓人好奇的在於他有了什麼改變,使他有如此好的成績? 這個題目相當不容易回答,身為球迷要碰觸此等問題,是既期待可以找到答案,卻又害怕無法接近事實。

先看看貓主席生涯統計數字: .327/.408/.483 .384wOBA,09年的數字: .365/.444/.587 .438wOBA,火力的升級讓他拿下AL MVP,而最讓人好奇的是,生涯平均每季8.8HR,今年卻有28HR,喵的不隆咚!?

當Mauer敲出第12支HR後,他自己說道“I don’t know. I’m not really changing anything, my approach or anything. I just try to hit the ball hard somewhere and they’re starting to fly over the fence.” 所以看起來他並沒有刻意改變他的擊球方式? 我們可以說起碼他心裡沒有計畫要改變,至於身體有沒有變化 (很多球員是無意識中有所改變),大概也不是多重要的事,只要他是往好的方向走就沒問題。

不過我們還是要來看貓主席擊球型態有沒有什麼變化,從FanGraphs可以得到一些資訊,在plate discipline方面,可以發現一件有趣的事,Mauer生涯的O-Swing%是18.7%,而他表現最好的兩年: 06與09年球季,數字分別是19.2%與20.6%,均高於生涯,而他成績較差的05與07年則是17.6%與17.7%,我們不能肯定Mauer因為放寬好球帶而有較好的成績,但或許可以說當Mauer狀況不錯時,他也會去揮擊好球帶邊緣甚至以外的球,不過這都還無法解釋貓主席HR增長的現象。

我們來關注於HR的部份,同樣的,這裡利用HitTracker來看Mauer他把球打到哪些地方


看起來貓主席的反方向攻擊還是比較強悍,他的全壘打產量也沒有明顯的主客場差別 (16:12),這裡也可以看出如果他用拉打方式,球可以飛得較遠,但數目較少,而他推到反方向數目多得多,但距離也相對降低,更進一步,Dave Allen提供了兩張很有用的圖

Mauer 09年將球從本壘板送到牆外的路徑


其他左打者的全壘打路徑


相當有意思,貓主席面對內角球會採取拉打的方式送出牆外,而反方向的全壘打幾乎都是外角球,但有兩件事我們可以拿出來特別注意: 1. 第一張圖顯示,儘管Mauer內角會採取拉打,但許多內角的擊球timing他還是放到比較後面,造成有幾顆內角球甚至是往反方向飛去,這和他揮棒速度夠快有關係。 2. 只要是投到外角而形成的全壘打都是反方向的全壘打,甚至中間靠內角的球,Mauer也都把他們擊成反方向,這跟其他大聯盟左打者是相反的 (第二張圖顯示左打者傾向把中間靠外角拉出牆外)。

除了HR,Baseball Analysts有一篇文章整理了多位選手在09年球季的拉擊、中間、與反向攻擊的概率與weight run values,下面的附表是我用該篇數據運算的結果,Mauer在反方向的得分是最高的,而且概率也顯示與其他選手相比,他有較多的反方向的擊球,不過他自己倒是把球打到各個方向



無論怎麼下結論,我們都能發現Mauer非常擅長於反方向的攻擊,並且是和多數選手不同的,不過這對於09年HR的增加有相關嗎? 貓主席是從今年才練就反方向攻擊的能力嗎? 從FanGraphs我們一樣可以得到一些數據,我把它整理了一下之後



04年樣本數不足,我就沒有採用了,這裡還是可以驗證一件幾乎可以確定的事實,貓主席的反向攻擊像是all-star type,但若是pull方式就普通得多。回歸到年度間的比較,發現Mauer今年反方向的HR大幅成長,是今年HR產量突增的主要貢獻,而center與right side也有較小幅的成長,單就反方向 (as L to Left)來看,其實GB%、LD%、FB%的比例並沒有明顯的趨勢,但弔詭的在於HR/FB從前幾季的各位數 (2.4%~6.4%)增加到20.8%,很明顯的兇手被逮到,在FB%沒有大幅變化之下,我們可以說他反方向的飛球飛得更遠了,但我們可以認定貓主席的power長出來了嗎? 這是個更難回答的問題,對於power長出與否,跟揮棒力量、技巧、速度等因素都有關係,或許貓主席在其中某項因素不知覺間有所精進,但要成為真正所謂的power hitter答案目前還是否定的,儘管他今年HR close to 30,但是太擅長於反向攻擊的選手,在年紀日增揮棒速度減緩後,反向攻擊能力很可能下滑,加上我們從前面的HitTracker了解到,Mauer反方向全壘打的距離確實比較短,幾乎可以推論他拉擊的能力是否能夠展現,才是Mauer power能否持續的真正金鑰,只是我認為Mauer天生就不是那樣用pull的打者,叫他猛拉可能適得其反。

還有,仔細觀察的話,09年整季下來,對手也並沒有刻意閃躲Mauer,在Baseball Info Solutions的統計下,他在今年面對的FB+CT高達69.2%,08年則是69.3%,與生涯的66.9%相比還升高了,換句話說,對方投手在面對他時,儘管了解這名打者很火,卻沒有多投一些變化球閃他,有可能是對手認為Mauer is not real power hitter,所以還是想運用FB壓迫他,畢竟他處理變化球也是相當有一套,再說接在Mauer後面是圖中另一位,投手有著必須面對Mauer的壓力。
<註1: FB=Fastball、CT=Cutter>
<註2: Justin Morneau生涯面對FB為56.0%、Albert Pujlos 58.6%、Ryan Howard 51.2%、Derek Jeter 67.1%,我們可以看出投手面對不同power打擊者時,有著不同的投球內容>


右邊是打第3棒的Mauer,左邊是擔任第4棒的Morneau (30HR in 2009)

另外,雙城的新球場Target Field將是室外球場,我相信貓主席對新球場會有不同的體驗,甚至非常有可能在他成績上有所反映,進而採取一些攻擊策略,或者是互為因果的影響。

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